Global Iron Transition Outlook
Methodology and Data Sources
Transparency underpins credibility. This page sets out the data sources, definitions, classifications and modelling choices behind the Outlook so that every figure can be interpreted, scrutinised and reproduced.
A transition lens on validated data
Task 52 does not simply duplicate external datasets. It adds a hydrogen transition, technology-readiness, supply-chain and pathway-modelling lens on top of validated data sources.
Sources
Data partners
The Outlook is built on established, openly recognised datasets, integrated and contextualised rather than replicated.
Mission Possible Partnership
Provides project-level and scenario insight on industrial decarbonisation, informing the Outlook's view of announced and developing iron and steel transition projects.
Global Energy Monitor
Supplies asset-level steel plant and capacity data that underpins mapping of existing and planned production, including process routes and locations.
Additional sources, including official statistics, company disclosures and peer-reviewed literature, are used where appropriate. Source-specific attribution will accompany each dataset as it is validated for release.
Maintenance
Data update frequency
The Outlook is maintained as a living resource rather than a single snapshot.
Project and asset records are reviewed on a periodic cycle, with the intended cadence to be confirmed as data partnerships are formalised. Major scenario revisions are expected to align with significant updates from contributing data partners and material developments in the sector. Each released dataset will carry a version identifier and a last-reviewed date so that users can judge currency.
Terminology
Definitions
Consistent terminology is essential for comparing projects, assets and scenarios across regions.
- DRI (Direct Reduced Iron)
- Iron produced by reducing iron ore in the solid state below its melting point, using a reducing gas such as natural gas, syngas or hydrogen rather than coke in a blast furnace.
- HBI (Hot Briquetted Iron)
- A densified, briquetted form of DRI designed for safe storage, handling and international transport, serving as a tradeable feedstock for downstream steelmaking.
- Hydrogen-based DRI (H2-DRI)
- DRI produced using hydrogen as the primary reductant, with the potential to substantially lower process emissions where the hydrogen is produced from low-carbon sources.
- Electric arc furnace (EAF)
- A steelmaking furnace that melts scrap and/or DRI/HBI using electrical energy, commonly paired with DRI in lower-emission production routes.
Classification
Technology classifications
Production routes are grouped to reflect their readiness for, and reliance on, hydrogen as a reductant.
Natural gas DRI
Established direct reduction operating on natural gas or syngas, representing the current commercial baseline for the route.
Hydrogen-ready DRI
Plants designed or retrofittable to accept increasing shares of hydrogen as the reducing gas as supply becomes available.
Hydrogen-based DRI
Direct reduction designed to operate predominantly or wholly on hydrogen, including pilot, demonstration and first-of-a-kind facilities.
Smelting and emerging routes
Electric smelting reduction and other emerging configurations that may complement hydrogen DRI for a wider range of ore qualities.
Status
Project status definitions
Each tracked project is assigned a development stage to support like-for-like comparison.
- 1
Announced
Publicly stated intent or commitment to develop a project, typically without confirmed financing, permitting or detailed engineering.
- 2
Feasibility
Project under active study, including pre-feasibility, feasibility or front-end engineering, where technical and commercial viability is being assessed.
- 3
Under construction
Final investment decision taken and physical construction or major equipment procurement underway.
- 4
Operating
Facility commissioned and in commercial or demonstration operation, including ramp-up phases.
Quality
Confidence scoring
Every record carries a confidence rating so that users can weigh evidence appropriately.
High
Drawn from official, validated or directly confirmed sources, with consistent corroboration across partners and limited residual uncertainty.
Medium
Based on credible reporting that is partially confirmed or subject to interpretation, where some parameters remain estimated or provisional.
Low
Derived from preliminary announcements, single sources or modelled assumptions, indicating values that may change materially as data matures.
Scenarios
Scenario assumptions
Forward-looking analysis depends on clearly stated, contestable assumptions.
Scenarios explore plausible trajectories for hydrogen-based iron production, DRI/HBI trade and the associated steel transition under differing assumptions on hydrogen availability and cost, ore quality and supply, policy support, and the pace of capacity additions and retirements. Scenarios are intended to illustrate ranges of outcomes rather than to predict a single future. Full assumption tables, with sources and rationale, will be published alongside each validated scenario release.
Methods
Modelling methods
The Outlook combines bottom-up asset data with scenario-based projection.
Analysis begins from a bottom-up inventory of projects and assets, classified by technology and development status. This base is projected forward under defined scenario assumptions to explore capacity, production and trade pathways. Where primary data is incomplete, transparent estimation methods and clearly labelled assumptions are used, and the resulting figures are rated for confidence accordingly. Methods remain under development; detailed documentation, including any model code or data schema made available, will accompany validated releases.
Use
Citation and attribution rules
Clear attribution protects both the Task and its contributing data partners.
Material drawn from the Outlook should cite IEA Hydrogen TCP Task 52, with the relevant dataset name, version and access date.
Underlying data partners, including Mission Possible Partnership and Global Energy Monitor, should be credited in line with their own attribution requirements.
Figures, maps and indicators marked as illustrative or under development should not be cited as definitive until validated for release.
Disclaimer
The data, figures, maps and scenarios presented in the Outlook are illustrative and under active development. They may be incomplete, provisional or subject to revision, and should not be relied upon as a definitive record.
Nothing in the Outlook constitutes investment, financial, legal or policy advice, and it should not be used as the sole basis for commercial or investment decisions.
The work of Task 52 is carried out within the IEA Hydrogen Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP). TCPs are functionally and legally autonomous; views, findings and conclusions expressed do not necessarily represent the views of the IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries.
Help improve the data
Spotted an error, or have project information to share? Data corrections and contributions from researchers, project developers and partners strengthen the Outlook ahead of validated release.